Sinda Sifi ¹*; Sabrine Zaghdoudi ¹; Hussein Almohamad ^2,3; Abdelwaheb Aydi ¹

1, Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty Science of Bizerte, University of Carthage, Jarzouna 7021, Bizerte, Tunisia 

2, Department of Geography, College of Languages and Human Sciences, Qassim University, Buraidah 51452, Saudi Arabia

3, Department of Geography, Justus Liebig University of Giessen, Giessen 35390, Germany

 

Manuscript link
http://dx.doi.org/10.30493/DAS.2026.010604

Abstract

The pressing need for solid, data-driven frameworks concerning sustainable water resource management is highlighted by escalating water consumption in arid and semi-arid regions. In this study, an integrated methodology merging remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), and multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) was presented. This combined approach was used to systematically delineate groundwater potential across the Mjez El Beb delegation. The extraction of thematic layers from satellite imagery and geospatial datasets constituted the initial phase. Subsequently, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) established specific factor weights. The characterization of spatial variations in groundwater potential required an evaluation of eight fundamental elements. These variables included lithology, slope, lineament density, drainage density, land use/land cover, precipitation, Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), and NDVI. Distinct heterogeneity was displayed by the final Groundwater Potential Zones (GWPZ) map. Furthermore, prime locations for sustainable exploitation were emphasized by this spatial model. The overall stability of the design was verified through strict validation against empirical borehole data. A high predictive capability was proven by a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.824. Ultimately, a repeatable structure for rapid and economical groundwater assessment is supplied by this investigation. Other arid and semi-arid territories can readily implement this approach, as predictive accuracy is substantially improved by merging remote sensing, GIS, and MCDM. Consequently, evidence-based decision-making for long-term water resource planning against future water scarcity is firmly supported by these analytical tools.

Keywords: Groundwater potential zones, Analytic hierarchy process, Semi-arid

Introduction

Major and immediate hurdles for the sustainable management of water resources are created by climate change impacts, especially within arid and semi-arid zones where water scarcity remains a fundamental issue [1][2]. These pressures are worsened by the growing global demand for water. Consequently, serious issues like groundwater depletion and deteriorating water quality have come to the forefront. Surface water variability is frequently mitigated by using groundwater as a central tactical backup. However, long-term water security is jeopardized by the reckless use of these underground resources. Since human requirements must be fulfilled without damaging ecosystem integrity, the maintenance of sustainable water resource management is essential [3].

Effective water resource management fundamentally relies on the identification and assessment of groundwater reserves. This step is essential to optimize water allocation and planning strategies [4]. Accurate characterization is frequently hindered by the spatial heterogeneity of aquifer systems, especially in fractured or complex geological settings. The use of integrated, multi-dimensional approaches is necessary under these conditions. Practitioners have widely utilized conventional methods, such as geophysical surveys, for groundwater detection. However, high costs and heavy labor often render these tools difficult to implement in resource-limited areas [5][6]. Consequently, dependable assessments across large or unreachable regions are increasingly required through cost-effective and replicable methodologies.

Groundwater assessment has been revolutionized by the latest progress in geospatial technologies, particularly Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) [7]. These tools provide fast and inexpensive options that function even in isolated regions and offer detailed spatial mapping. Such analysis is vital to pinpoint locations with high water-bearing potential [8]. For RS and GIS strategies to be effective, various data layers must be systematically combined. A single characteristic is never enough to explain the complex nature of where water is found. Mapping these regions relies on merging several linked environmental and hydrogeological variables. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) has emerged as a powerful multi-criteria decision-making tool for systematically synthesizing such diverse factors [9][10]. This technique allows for the ranking of key influences. It also increases the reliability of findings. Even so, the success of AHP-based models is governed by the successful selection of markers and the quality of expert input. This reality emphasizes the necessity for local fine-tuning.

This study focuses on delineating Groundwater Potential Zones (GWPZ) in the Mjez El Beb delegation of north-western Tunisia, a semi-arid region where increasing pressure on water resources from agricultural intensification contrasts with the scarcity of detailed groundwater potential mapping. By integrating AHP-based multi-criteria analysis with RS and GIS, this research aims to establish a methodological framework that balances analytical rigor with practical applicability. Comprehensive data acquisition, satellite imagery processing, and thematic layer development were conducted to ensure the robustness and reproducibility of the analysis, thereby addressing a critical gap in localized groundwater assessment tools and providing a strong foundation for sustainable groundwater management in the region.

Material and Methods

Study area

The Mjez El Beb delegation is located in the north-western Beja governorate of Tunisia. This territory spans roughly 460 km² and sustains a population of 41,700 [11]. Geographical boundaries are marked by UTM coordinates 4047368–4076434 N and 538164–571384 E, about 60 km west of Tunis inside the fertile Medjerda Valley (Fig. 1). The area is characterized by a Mediterranean climate with continental influence and the local environment is defined by hot, dry summers and mild, humid winters. When compared to coastal regions, high thermal amplitudes are shown by the transitional seasons. Favorable agricultural conditions are provided by an average annual precipitation of 632 mm and a mean annual temperature of 19.1 °C [12].

Agricultural activity is intensive, dominated by cereals (wheat and barley), citrus orchards, and olive groves, supported by fertile soils and an established irrigation network. Land use is largely agricultural, with significant contributions from legume and vegetable production [13].

High heterogeneity is displayed by the local topography. The landscape is constituted of plains, rolling hills, and minor mountain chains, with the northern region reaching elevations up to 640 meters. From a geological perspective, alluvial deposits in the Medjerda Valley are found across the region. These are supported by sedimentary formations like marls, clays, and limestones. Both surface and subsurface hydrology are influenced by these formations. Minor faults and fractures intersect the rock layers. Consequently, variable conditions for groundwater storage and movement are created [14].

The landscape is dominated by the Medjerda River from a hydrographic perspective. The river serves as a vital supply of surface water and is utilized for both irrigation and household use. Alluvial and fractured sedimentary aquifers contain the local groundwater, which is mainly utilized by residents and farmers through wells and boreholes. High water quality is generally shown by these aquifers; however, lithology, topography, and land use govern their spatial distribution in the region. Sustainable water supply and agricultural productivity are ensured by the proper management of these resources [15].

Selected factors

Geospatial techniques integrating Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing were employed in this study to delineate the Groundwater Potential Zones (GWPZ). To achieve this objective in the Mjez El Beb delegation, eight key factors influencing groundwater occurrence and recharge were selected: lithology, land use/land cover, slope, topographic wetness index (TWI), rainfall, drainage density, lineament density, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The maps related to the selected factors were acquired from reliable sources (Table 1) and prepared for being used in the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP).

Lithology represents a fundamental controlling factor in groundwater potential assessment, as it governs both primary and secondary permeability, which in turn regulates groundwater flow and storage. Consequently, lithological information is widely incorporated in groundwater-related studies due to its strong influence on aquifer characteristics [16][17]. In the present study, three geological maps at a scale of 1:50,000 were used to accurately delineate the spatial distribution of lithological units within the study area.

Land use and land cover constitute critical parameters in groundwater resource evaluation, as they directly affect surface–subsurface interactions and groundwater exploitation patterns [18]. LULC classes serve as important indicators of infiltration capacity, percolation processes, and surface runoff behavior, thereby playing a significant role in groundwater potential assessment at the regional scale [19].

Slope reflects the topographic gradient between higher and lower elevations and exerts a strong control on surface runoff, infiltration, and groundwater recharge processes. Areas characterized by steep slopes tend to generate higher runoff and reduced recharge due to limited infiltration and percolation, whereas gentle slopes favor groundwater accumulation [20]. To account for these topographic effects, a slope map was incorporated into the analysis [21].

Lineaments, representing faults, fractures, and other structural discontinuities, play a crucial role in controlling groundwater movement by enhancing secondary porosity and permeability. These zones are typically associated with increased weathering and erosion, facilitating water transfer between the surface and subsurface [22][23]. Areas exhibiting high lineament density are therefore considered favorable for groundwater development [24]. In this study, the lineament density (LD) thematic layer was generated using the lineament density analysis tool in ArcGIS and computed as the total length of lineaments per unit area (km²):

Where ∑Li represents the total recorded length of lineaments in the study area (Km), and A is the unit area (km²).

Drainage density is another important hydrological parameter influencing groundwater potential. It is defined as the total length of stream channels per unit area and reflects the balance between runoff and infiltration processes [8]. Drainage density is widely used for identifying groundwater potential zones [20]. In the present study, drainage density was derived from SRTM DEM data using the line density analysis tool in ArcMap. Areas with contrasting drainage density values provide insight into spatial variations in recharge conditions:

Where Dd represents drainage density (km/km²), ∑Si denotes the total length of streams (km), and A is the area (km²).

Rainfall constitutes the primary source of groundwater recharge and significantly influences its spatial distribution. Prolonged and low-intensity rainfall events generally enhance infiltration and recharge, whereas short-duration, high-intensity rainfall tends to increase surface runoff [25]. Accordingly, a rainfall thematic layer was developed using a 27-year dataset (1993–2023) obtained from nine rainfall stations distributed across the study area [26].

The Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), also referred to as the Compound Topographic Index (CTI), is used to quantify the spatial distribution of soil moisture as controlled by topography [27]. TWI serves as a secondary hydrological index for evaluating the influence of terrain on water accumulation and subsurface flow processes [28]. In this study, TWI was derived from SRTM data using the raster calculator in ArcGIS, based on slope (in radians) and upslope contributing area, and was computed as follows [27]:

Where α represents the upslope contributing area, and β is the slope expressed in radians.

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) provides valuable information on vegetation density and vigor, and is closely linked to several hydrological processes, including evapotranspiration, soil moisture retention, and infiltration [29].  Areas characterized by high NDVI values generally indicate favorable conditions for groundwater recharge compared to sparsely vegetated or bare surfaces.

Methodology

The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was originally developed by Saaty [30]. This method is a widely adopted multi-criteria decision-making technique used to assign relative weights to thematic layers in Groundwater Potential Zones Zone (GWPZ) mapping. This approach enables the systematic evaluation of multiple, often interdependent, criteria by integrating expert knowledge within a structured and transparent decision framework.

AHP facilitates the quantification of the relative influence of each factor on groundwater protection and potential assessment. The implementation of the AHP methodology involves several sequential steps. Initially, the decision problem is clearly defined through the identification of relevant objectives and groundwater-controlling factors. Subsequently, a hierarchical structure is constructed, comprising the overall goal, the selected criteria, and their respective sub-criteria [31]. Pairwise comparison matrices are then developed to evaluate the relative importance of each criterion using Saaty’s fundamental scale ranging from 1 to 9, based on expert judgment. These comparisons allow the derivation of normalized weights, which are used to rank the thematic layers according to their contribution to groundwater conservation. Finally, consistency indices and consistency ratios are calculated to assess the logical coherence of the expert judgments. A consistency ratio (CR) value lower than 0.1 is considered acceptable, ensuring the reliability of the assigned weights; otherwise, the pairwise comparisons are re-evaluated to improve consistency.

Where: CI represents the Consistency Index; λmax is the maximum eigenvalue of the pairwise comparison matrix, and n is the number of criteria or alternatives being compared.

Where: CR denotes the Consistency Ratio, CI signifies the Consistency Index, and RI is the Random Index based on Saaty’s scale, which depends on the number of parameters.

The Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) method is a widely applied aggregation technique used to integrate multiple thematic factors with their respective weights derived from the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) [32][33]. This approach enables the quantitative combination of heterogeneous criteria into a single composite groundwater potential index, while preserving the relative importance assigned to each factor. In the present study, the WLC method was implemented in ArcMap using the “Weighted Sum” function to delineate groundwater potential zones. The final groundwater potential score was computed by summing the weighted contributions of all thematic layers, where each factor is multiplied by its corresponding AHP-derived weight [30].

Where GWPZS represents the groundwater potential score, wi is the weight of the factor and xi is the rated score of the factor i.

This linear aggregation framework allows for a transparent and systematic integration of spatial information, facilitating the identification of zones with varying degrees of groundwater potential across the study area.

Results and Discussion

Thematic maps of influential groundwater factors

The thematic layers for groundwater potential mapping were classified and rated following the criteria summarized in Table 2. These maps illustrating the spatial distribution of the eight selected factors (Fig. 2) reveal a clear spatial differentiation between favorable and unfavorable zones for groundwater occurrence across the study area.

The slope map (Fig. 2 A) indicates that the highest-ranked areas, corresponding to gentle slopes, are predominantly located in the central and southern parts of the study area, particularly around Mjez El Beb and extending towards El Girat. These low-gradient plains favor reduced surface runoff and enhanced infiltration, thus indicating high groundwater potential. In contrast, the northern sector, notably around Hidous and Toukaber, is characterized by steeper slopes associated with lower ranks, reflecting limited groundwater recharge due to dominant runoff processes [20].

The lithological map (Fig. 2 B) shows that low-ranked lithological units, mainly marly clays, dominate large portions of the study area, especially in the northern and central zones, suggesting generally low groundwater potential [34]. However, higher-ranked permeable formations, including alluvial deposits and sandy materials [35], are locally developed along valley bottoms and depressions, particularly in the vicinity of Mjez El Beb and towards El Girat, where they significantly enhance groundwater storage and recharge conditions.

The land use/land cover map (Fig. 2 C) reveals that higher-ranked classes, corresponding to vegetated and forested areas, are mainly distributed in the northern and northeastern parts of the study area, especially around Hidous and El Herri. These areas are favorable for groundwater recharge due to improved infiltration and reduced surface runoff [36]. Conversely, urbanized zones, concentrated around Mjez El Beb, are characterized by reduced groundwater potential resulting from surface imperviousness [37].

The lineament density map (Fig. 2 D) highlights structurally favorable zones for groundwater occurrence, where higher-ranked areas are primarily observed in the western and southern parts of the study area, notably between Toukaber and Mjez El Beb. These zones are characterized by dense fracture networks that enhance secondary permeability and facilitate groundwater circulation. Areas with lower lineament density, particularly toward the eastern sector near El Girat, display comparatively lower groundwater potential [22-24].

The topographic wetness index map (Fig. 2 E) shows that high-ranked zones are mainly associated with valley floors and topographic convergence areas located in the central and southern parts of the study area, particularly around Mjez El Beb. These zones represent areas of water accumulation and subsurface flow concentration, indicating favorable conditions for groundwater recharge. In contrast, elevated terrains in the northern part of the basin, notably around Hidous and Toukaber, exhibit lower TWI values and consequently lower groundwater potential.

The rainfall map (Fig. 2 F) indicates a relatively uniform spatial distribution of precipitation across the study area, with slightly higher-ranked rainfall zones extending over the northern part near Hidous and El Herri. These areas benefit from relatively higher rainfall input, contributing positively to groundwater recharge, although rainfall alone does not strongly differentiate groundwater potential spatially within the basin.

The drainage density map (Fig. 2 G) reveals that higher-ranked drainage density values are concentrated along a central corridor crossing Mjez El Beb from northwest to southeast. This pattern reflects structurally influenced drainage systems that may promote infiltration through fractured zones, indicating moderate to high groundwater potential. Lower-ranked drainage density zones, mainly located toward the basin margins, suggest reduced recharge efficiency.

The NDVI map (Fig. 2 H) shows that areas with higher ranks, corresponding to dense vegetation cover, are mainly distributed in the northern and central parts of the study area, particularly around Hidous, Toukaber, and El Herri. These areas indicate favorable soil moisture conditions and enhanced infiltration, supporting higher groundwater potential. In contrast, sparsely vegetated or bare surfaces, predominantly observed in the southern and eastern parts near El Girat, exhibit lower groundwater potential.

Overall, the spatial interpretation of the thematic maps indicates that zones with high groundwater potential are mainly concentrated in the central and southern parts of the study area, especially around Mjez El Beb, where gentle slopes, locally permeable lithologies, structural control, and moisture accumulation zones coincide. Conversely, the northern uplands, characterized by steep slopes, low-permeability lithologies, and limited moisture accumulation, generally exhibit lower groundwater potential.

AHP weighting and groundwater potential zones

Following the generation and reclassification of the thematic layers for groundwater modeling, the next step involved assigning relative weights to the selected factors to account for their varying degrees of influence on groundwater potential [38]. To achieve this, the pairwise comparison technique within the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) framework was employed to evaluate the relative importance of each criterion. This weighting process was informed by expert knowledge obtained through consultations with local specialists, complemented by an extensive review of relevant literature [27].

The resulting pairwise comparison matrices and the corresponding factor weights highlight the relative contribution of each criterion to the groundwater potential assessment (Table 3). Among the selected parameters, the status of the most influential parameter was held by lithology, which carried a weight of 0.24. This significance reflects its dominant control over aquifer permeability and groundwater storage. A relatively high weight was also exhibited by land use/land cover. Such a result underscores its vital role in regulating surface–subsurface interactions. Conversely, a lesser influence on groundwater potential was exerted by NDVI proving a minimal impact compared to other controlling variables.

The calculated consistency ratio (CR) of 0.08 demonstrates a satisfactory level of consistency in the pairwise comparisons, confirming the robustness and reliability of the assigned weights and supporting the validity of the weighting scheme adopted in this study.

The Groundwater Potential Zones (GWPZ) map (Fig. 3) for the study area was created by combining multiple groundwater control factors through the Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) method:

GWPZS = (0.24×L) + (0.19×LULC) + (0.16×S) + (0.16×TWI) + (0.11×R) + (0.07×Dd) + (0.04×Ld) + (0.03×NDVI)

Distinct variability is shown by the spatial arrangement of groundwater potential in the Mjez El Beb delegation. This pattern reflects the interaction of topographic, hydrological, and geological factors. Zones classified as ‘excellent’ and ‘high’ groundwater potential on the GWPZ map are predominantly located within the central and southwestern sectors. These areas are concentrated near the Mjez El Beb locality. Gently undulating terrain, moderate to high drainage density, and annual precipitation exceeding 500 mm define these locations. Such environmental traits collectively favor enhanced infiltration and aquifer recharge. Finally, the accumulation and subsurface storage of groundwater are facilitated by the moderate relief and extensive permeable formations in these sectors. This makes the region ideal for sustainable water resource development.

Conversely, ‘low’ to ‘very low’ groundwater potential largely dominates the northern and eastern portions of the delegation, specifically around Hidous and El Girat. These regions are defined by steep slopes, sparse drainage networks, and fractured lithologies. Such features limit water retention, accelerate surface runoff, and reduce infiltration rates. Furthermore, these zones coincide with highland formations that possess shallow soils and limited storage capacity. Consequently, groundwater availability is further constrained.

The distribution of boreholes across the study area reinforces these observed patterns. Specifically, high-density drilling is concentrated in regions with favorable hydrogeological conditions. The strong alignment between borehole locations and zones of elevated potential underscores the robustness and predictive capacity of the GWPZ model. This precision highlights the model’s practical utility for water resource planning and groundwater management within semi-arid regions.

Overall, the spatial arrangement of groundwater potential in Mjez El Beb reflects a complex interplay between topography, lithology, and hydrological dynamics. Pinpointing high-potential zones provides a scientifically sound foundation for targeted groundwater exploitation and artificial recharge projects. Ultimately, these results facilitate sustainable management strategies and strengthen regional water security across Northern Tunisia.

Valuable insights are gained by comparing these findings with previous investigations [39-41]. These studies evaluated groundwater potential across various arid regions in Tunisia using similar methodological frameworks. Collectively, their results emphasize the profound impact of site-specific hydrogeological and geomorphological traits on model outputs. This reinforces that assigned weightings and ratings are highly context-dependent and vary significantly between regions.

Model validation and performance evaluation

To rigorously assess the predictive performance of the generated Groundwater Potential (GWP) model, a validation procedure was conducted using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, leveraging the spatial coordinates of existing boreholes as an independent ground-truth dataset. The ROC curve was constructed by plotting the true positive rate (TPR) against the false positive rate (FPR), followed by calculation of the Area Under the Curve (AUC) to quantify classification accuracy. This metric ranges from a baseline of 0.5, indicative of random prediction, to 1, which represents perfect predictive capability. According to established interpretative criteria, an AUC≥0.9 denotes excellent performance, values between 0.8–0.9 indicate good performance, 0.7–0.8 reflect moderate accuracy, and scores below 0.6 suggest poor predictive reliability [31].

The resulting ROC curve (Fig. 4) demonstrates a strong predictive profile, characterized by a steep initial rise where TPR increases rapidly at low FPR thresholds, highlighting the model’s high sensitivity and its robust capacity to accurately delineate high-potential groundwater zones while minimizing false positive occurrences. Quantitatively, the model attained an AUC value of 0.824, which, in the context of hydrogeological predictive modeling, reflects very good to excellent classification accuracy.

The resulting AUC value indicates that the model is able to distinguish accurately between high- and low-potential zones in 82.4% of the cases. Such results confirm the effectiveness of the integrated multi-criteria spatial variables used throughout this research. Since the predictive curve remains distinctly separated from the diagonal baseline (AUC=0.5), a significant statistical link is established between the thematic layers and known borehole sites. These layers encompass factors such as topography, drainage density, and lithology. Furthermore, the narrow confidence envelope surrounding the ROC curve highlights the stability and reproducibility of the model within the Mjez El Beb region. This consistency suggests that the findings are not mere artifacts of overfitting. Instead, the framework offers a robust and dependable foundation for sustainable groundwater resource management and the strategic selection of future drilling locations.

Conclusion

This research integrated remote sensing, GIS, and multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques to pinpoint potential groundwater zones within the Mjez El Beb delegation. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) systematically weighted eight vital hydrogeological and environmental factors. These specific parameters comprised lithology, slope, lineament density, drainage density, land use/land cover, precipitation, TWI, and NDVI. Subsequently, the Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) method merged the selected datasets. The spatial distribution of existing regional boreholes directly evaluated the final groundwater potential zones (GWPZ) map. This strict validation yielded an AUC of 0.824. Such a high metric clearly demonstrates the solid predictive performance and overall dependability of the constructed model.

Various spatial datasets are merged into a unified predictive model. False positives and observational uncertainty are simultaneously minimized by the accurate designation of high-potential zones. A quick, economical, and repeatable substitute for standard field-based surveys can be generated through these geospatial technologies, which might be of great importance in arid and data-poor environments. An essential baseline for sustainable water resource administration is established by this framework, extending well beyond the initial mapping of groundwater potential. Aquifer recharge planning, tactical drilling site selection, and the ranking of conservation priorities directly utilize these analytical results. Furthermore, this study opens new avenues for future research, such as integrating groundwater quality indicators, modeling artificial recharge scenarios, or extending the framework to neighboring regions to support regional-scale water security strategies. Overall, the findings underscore the transformative potential of combining remote sensing, GIS, and MCDM techniques for tackling hydrogeological challenges in arid and semi-arid environments.

Conflict of interest statement
The authors declared no conflict of interest.
Funding statement
The authors declared that no funding was received in relation to this manuscript.
Data availability statement
The authors declared that all data sources used in the manuscript are mentioned and cited in the text. Datasets used to prepare this research will be available upon reasonable request from the corresponding author.

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Cite this article:

Sifi S, Zaghdoudi S, Almohamad H, Aydi A. Predictive modeling of groundwater potential zones for water security in semi-arid Mediterranean region. DYSONA-Applied Science. 2026;7(2):255–68. doi: 10.30493/das.2026.010604